The Upper Cumberland could face a more intense spring storm season this year, with an unusually energetic atmosphere raising the risk for long-track tornadoes.
TheUCNow.Com Meteorologist Rob Carolan said this week’s temperature swing shows just how volatile the contrast can be, from 70 degrees and a tornado threat Sunday to two inches of snow Monday and 80-degree temperatures this weekend. Carolan said the extreme temperature contrast creates the necessary ingredients for severe thunderstorms and tornadic activity.
“So I think what we have to really watch out for or keeping an eye on things is the potential is the potential higher this year for some long-lasting, long-track EF3, EF4, and potentially EF5 tornadoes,” Carolan said. “Those are the ones that are really concerning.”
Carolan said severe weather has already reached as far north as Illinois and Michigan earlier than usual. One tornado recently formed over a frozen lake in Michigan, indicating a highly unstable environment.
“And if that doesn’t tell you how unstable the atmosphere is, nothing will,” Carolan said. “So even seeing them that far north this early in the season is indicative of how energetic the atmosphere has been so far this month.”
Carolan said strong upper-level storm systems act like a vacuum, pulling air rapidly from the surface into the upper atmosphere. When this rising column of air begins to twist and change direction, it creates the rotation necessary to produce tornadoes.
“So I’m just, you know, me doing this for a long time, looking at it, it’s almost like, you know, how much explosive force would you get out of a pound of gunpowder,” Carolan said. “Well, you get more out of two pounds.”
Carolan said areas across the Dakotas, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and Canada experienced a colder and snowier winter compared to recent years. This abundance of cold air provides more energy for storm systems to utilize as they develop and move across the country.
“I’m looking at the setup saying to myself, ‘Gee, this spring, you know, we could be looking at storms that are stronger because the last couple of winters haven’t been quite as cold and as snowy over those areas that I mentioned, so there wasn’t as much cold air available to help fire up some of these stronger storms,’” Carolan said.